基于蒙特卡罗方法的房地产投资风险分析研究

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Journal of Wuhan University of Technology ›› 2004, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (7) : 100-102.
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Research on Risk Analysis for Real Estate Investment Based on Monte Carlo QIAO Wan-feng,ZHANG Sheng-dong (School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)The net value is used as the efficiency index of real estate risk. Using the method that create random number of stochastic variable, a risk analysis model of Monte Carlo is described by confirming central risk factors of finance estimate′s aspect and discussing risk variables′ style of probability distribution. Its simulation degree is confirmed from statistical theory as well. Finally the way to analyze the conclusion of simulation is discussed in detail.Monte Carlo method; real estate investment; risk analysis

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