应用实物期权方法探讨投资决策问题,提出了一种同时考虑产品生命周期和市场结构的分析模型。研究表明,不确定程度越大、产品生命周期越长、企业垄断力越强、折现率越低则实物期权价值和投资临界值越高,导致最佳投资点延迟。

Investment Decision Based on Real Options Allowing for Product Life Cycle & Market StructureLIU Tao~1,ZHANG Xian-jun~2,CHEN Zhong~1(1. Aetna School of Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China;2. School of Finance, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310012, China)A real options approach was applied to analyze optimal investment decision. A model that incorporated the product life cycle as well as market structure was introduced. It is shown that the value of real options and the investment threshold will be higher and thus the optimal entry time of the investment will delay when the uncertainty is larger, the product life is longer, the market power is larger or the discount rate is lower.investment decision; real options; product life cycle(PLC); market structure